Happy New Year to everyone! With the arrival of a new decade, one thing is obvious: technology is moving at light speed. What was hot just a few years or even months ago is old and obsolete today. It used to be that early adaptors lived on the bleeding edge. Now the bleeding edge barely starts to hemorrhage before something new comes along. It took a long time for things like VHS tapes, over-the-air analog television, and dial-up Internet connections to be given a decent burial. In today’s environment of wireless streaming video, smart phones, Wi-Fi, and e-readers, we really have to pick and choose, and do our research to hang on to something for any length of time.
But my post isn’t about tomorrow’s innovations; it’s about those warm-and-fuzzy things we grew up with that are either on the trash heap or on a fast track to oblivion.
Let’s start with postage stamps. OK, I know, you just used them to send out your Christmas cards. And like me, you got a lot of cards delivered by the mailman. But this Holiday Season, I received more e-cards than traditional Hallmarks. As a matter of fact, quite a few were Hallmark e-cards. With texting and email, who buys rolls of stamps anymore?
Next comes faxing. It used to be that faxing was the only way to instantly get an important document from point A to point B. Well, not quit instantly since sometimes you got a busy signal or the recipient’s machine was out of paper or you programmed the wrong number and set it for after hours delivery and there was a guy in Indiana whose phone kept ringing and he wanted to hold you under the water until the bubbles stopped. But it was fairly quick and reliable. Today, just scan the document and email it as a PDF attachment. Cost? Next to nothing. Faxing is as dead as your New Years ham.
When was the last time you actually opened that huge, dictionary-size copy of the Yellow Pages? With Google, Internet Yellow and White pages, all those books do is kill trees. Then they clog up the landfill. Aren’t you glad you’re not a Yellow Pages advertising salesman?
Ten years ago I wrote dozens of checks a month to pay bills and buy stuff. Today I average maybe one a month. With online banking, PayPal, and Quicken, writing checks is right up there with listening to music on AM radio. There is still AM radio, right?
Video rentals made Blockbuster a blockbuster business. Then came Netflix, the Blockbuster killer. Then came Red Box, the Netflix killer. Then came Blockbuster Express the . . . well, being reactive instead of proactive in the tech world means you have one foot in the grave. Soon, wireless, on-demand, streaming 1080p video will kill them all including DVD and Blu-ray. I guess after that, we’ll just have to think of a movie and it will appear in our heads. BTW, watch for no-glasses-required 3D television coming soon to a Best Buy near you.
Picture a large group of big heavy books with matching covers that took up a complete shelf in your office. They were called encyclopedias. Remember the last time you went to find information in an encyclopedia? Me neither. By the time it would take me to pull the book from the shelf, I can find the answer online from 100+ sources.
Aren’t you glad you’re not an encyclopedia salesman? Or a fax machine salesman? Or work in a video rental store?
And I saved the best for last. Newspapers. I know I’ll get a lot of “you’re crazy” comments on that one. I’ll be honest, I love reading the newspaper while sipping my coffee each morning just like everyone else. But let’s face it, folks, printing newspapers and having them delivered by some guy in a noisy little POS car at 5:00 AM no longer makes for a profitable business model. Some have already fallen. There will be more in the new decade.
Technology marches on. Today it’s marching so fast, that it’s hard to keep up. So don’t get too attached to that latest gadget. You might be trying to sell it on eBay tomorrow and no one even meets your reserve price.
Here’s a final thought about technology: "640K ought to be enough for anybody." — Bill Gates, 1981
is there anything you can think of that is on it’s way out the door in 2010?
Joe, my grandfather was one of the top 10 Encyclopedia Britannica salesman in the country during the Depression. I have a set from about 1965 or so. I keep it, because often the articles in it are much more in depth than what you might find online. True, some some are dated, but others are just as reliable today. Likewise, the best dictionary is Websters New Collegiate, 1950 ed., so I have two copies of that on hand.
Hey, there’s some life left in print!
It will be interesting to see what the trend is on e-readers this year. My feeling is that most sales the couple of years were driven by the “early adopters.” I don’t see that happening in 2010. There will be continued sales, but how fast and far is an open question I think.
Great post, but it certainly made me feel my age. Today I can sit at the keyboard of a sleek laptop computer and in two minutes do research that would have taken a half-day at the library (you do remember libraries, don’t you?). Ah, progress.
But thanks for the memories.
Sometimes I still go to the library, because they have a wonderful reading room that looks like a turn of the century lounge taken from the League of Extraordinary Gentlemen era, including sweeping views of the Chugach Mountains all the way around. I go there to look at all the antique books on the shelves so I feel retro while I do research on the internet via my Laptop.
But just in case, when society as we know it collapses and technology is tossed back a hundred years by the barbarian invaders, I still keep around my 1947 manual typewriter left by my grandfather.
Oh….and one thing that will never go away…
Duct Tape
Some things are never undoable.
Thanks for making me feel old! I remember when I first started work that I actually used a dictation machine – my secretary did have a computer though! Also faxing was definitely it and a bit. Just before I left the law firm they introduced internal (only) email and we thought that was life changing. At that time Melbourne had only a couple of internet cafes – when I came to the US to work at the University of Arizona I couldn’t believe I had internet access from my work computer…that alone makes me feel like a dinosaur now! I have to admit though my day is not complete without tea, vegemite toast and the new york times spread out on the table…
Jim, sounds like your dad was in the right place at the right time. I agree, Britannica had great in depth information. We owned a set growing up. It cost a fortune in those days. Unfortunately, the day it was printed, it was obsolete.
Richard, I used to go to the regional library at Broward Community College at least twice a week to do research. I’d be hard pressed to find it today, much less use it.
Basil, if my local library looked like the one you describe, I would reconsider and go there often. I agree, duct tape will be with us always. If you can’t fix it, duct it!
Clare, you’re right, it’s a comforting ritual to enjoy the newspaper the way you describe. Future generations will never know.
Good post, Joe. Here are my predictions.
On its way out in 2010:
*TV Guide magazine (or is that already gone?)
*CD players
*Several major metropolitan newspapers
*Cursive handwriting being taught in schools
Leaving soon in 2011:
*Bills mailed to your house
*Telephones
*Kindle (as we currently know it)
*Borders Bookstores
Gone by 2020:
*Network news (ABC, NBC, CBS)
*The current college football bowl system (I know, it’s not technology)
*Laptop computers
All good predictions, Mike. Don’t forget the big one: December 21, 2012, world ends.
For fifteen years, I was that guy in the noisy little POS car at 5:00 AM. It left my days open for writing. Actually, it was a fast-cycling series of noisy little POS cars, as that’s a tough job for the car.
You get points for knowing it’s not a kid on a bike, though, as so many of my customers were prone to think, especially around Christmas time!
Levi
Thanks for clarifying, Levi. I was wondering who kept waking me up. 🙂
I’m glad genealogy research is easier with the internet. There’s no way I could go to Scotland and find out what I know now about my maternal grandfather’s family.
We still buy some stamps and write a few checks, but not anywhere near the amount we used to.
And Basil-you need WD40 along with the duct tape. You know, if it doesn’t move and should, use the WD40, and if it moves and should not, use the duct tape! (Yeah, I’m from the South!)