by John Gilstrap
www.johngilstrap.com
Ever noticed that naysayers are a dime a dozen? Everywhere you go, there seems to be an unending supply of pessimists, doubting Thomases, bear-marketers and curmudgeons who seem to shine brightest when they can wallow in predictions for bad times. It’s been that way for as long as I can remember, but in recent years, the publishing world seems to have been inundated with pessimists, one half-empty glass at a time. “The book is dead,” we hear. “No one cares about the written word anymore.”
I’ve recently come to view these laments as the panicked cries of old-schoolers who see change on the horizon. I’ve known a lot of editors in my time, but I can’t think of a single one who was technologically on the edge. For them, the definition of a book begins and ends with the notion of ink on paper, classically bound in either paper or cloth. Looking out ten years, I’d say those folks have good reason to be fearful.
Or, God forbid, they could adapt.
According to an article in this week’s Publisher’s Weekly, ebook sales at B&N accounted for 3% of total book sales last year, up from less than 1% the year before. The absolute numbers might not be staggering, then the trend certainly is. Run the figures in your head, and you quickly see that the old-fashioned brick-and-mortar bookstore represents a pretty regressive business model. (As I blogged last week, even I, one of the Luddite hold-outs, got a Kindle; and if I can be converted, anyone can.)
For the sake of argument, let’s proclaim the book as we currently know it to be on a terminal course. (I personally believe that there will always be a vibrant market for bound books, but that $25 cover price for what will essentially be a reproduction antique will be a hard sell.) On the day the last printing press were to stop, the market for stories would still be thriving. People would still be reading.
How do I know? Watch how the members of the younger generation entertain themselves. They’ve got their iPhones and their social networking, but what are those, essentially, but words? When I was a kid, we rotted our minds by watching endless hours of bad television (“My Mother the Car,” anyone?). These days, television viewership is plummeting like a comet as kids turn to other forms of storytelling. Even gaming is storytelling. That’s what we do, folks. And with each new Internet fad comes new opportunities for people with imaginations to shine.
If J.K. Rowling and Stephanie Meyers have proven nothing else, it’s that the new generation craves entertainment on the page. And if the scourge of vanity presses has proven nothing else, it’s that quality still matters.
While the $25 hardcover is great for the publisher, I don’t see how it can sustain itself against the lower-priced competition. As the hardcover goes away, so does the stigma of the paperback original, and the hugely different distribution systems for the two formats. My crystal ball shows this being a heavy blow to authors who’ve grown used to 7-figure advances, but a tremendous opportunity for the vast sea of writers formerly known as midlist.
I think the publishing business is today where the transportation business was in the 1920s. The fact that automobiles rendered horse-drawn carriages irrelevant didn’t mean that people stopped traveling; it just meant that modern convenience trumped tradition. I assume that buggy wheel manufacturers who adapted to making automotive wheels did pretty well, even as the whip manufacturers found themselves with way fewer options. Carrying the analogy even further, remember that Henry Ford made a bloody fortune by producing a product that was specifically priced to be affordable.
What do you think? Do you see the publishing world imploding on itself, or do you agree with me that this is a great time to be a writer?
Great time obviously! Tweeted.
Excellent post, John. As one of the unpublished-but-getting-closer group, I have to believe it’s a great time. I think there will be more opportunities–not fewer–for writers to get their books in front of readers in the coming years.
Good thoughts, John. I think it’s a great time, too (and always will be, for good storytellers). I’ve been arguing for about two years now that the e-book “revolution” can turn into something like the mass market explosion post WWII. Opportunities for writers, and the best ones (e.g., John D. MacDonald) will rise to the top. Also, a vibrant new market for short stories, as our own collection, Fresh Kills, attests.
I also agree hardcover will be a rarer form. But if publishers can get $12.99 -$14.99 for an e-book, that’ll bring in the same coin as a discounted hardcover. Which is why the fight right now is over pricing.
I would not, however, predict the demise of print, or see the trendline of e-books continuing on its current trajectory. It will grow, but I’m not so sure at the same rate as the past two years.
And here’s an odd thing. I informally survey young readers, those in their 20’s I catch reading books at Starbucks and the like. You know what? They LOVE paper and do NOT want to be e-only. This is unscientific, I know, but those who read books are real “readers.” The “kids” who are “gaming” and the like, much of the time are not big readers, as we would define it here.
I completely agree, John. There has never been more opportunities for writers than today. And the list of ways and methods to get published is growing daily. Joyce is right, it’s only going to get better for all levels of writing.
Will book production change in the future? Just ask the manufacturers of phonograph needles, slide rules, manual typewriters, film cameras, 8-track tapes, CRT televisions, wall phones, punch cards, and steam powered computers. I threw that last one in to see if you were paying attention.
Jim, I agree with every element of you post except the last sentence. My 23-year-old son is a big gamer (check out his blog, chrisgilstrap.blogspot.com), as are his friends, and everyone in his circle are big readers of books. That’s a small sample, I understand, but makes sense, given that today’s video games are at their roots just a form of interactive storytelling.
John
I think the publishing model currently in place will implode, but books and reading aren’t going anywhere. The proportion of e-books to paper will change, but I agree with Jim here, paper isn’t going away in our lifetimes. (Hardcovers sold under the current model may be a different story.)
Folks are always alarmed that young people don’t read; the reading audience is aging, and soon they (we’ll) all be dead. Bull. Older people will always read more, and we’re never going to run out of them, because people only get older. Young people don’t read as much, in part, because they have other things to do. They have small children, they may have to work longer hours as they build careers, they actually do physical things those of us in middle age are nostalgic about. Their reading time–and disposable income for books–will increase as they get older.
Joe, as someone once said, the only constant in life is change. In fact, given market conditions, I myself have abandoned my development program for the nuclear-powered computer. Now I just have to figure out what to do with the 80pounds of plutonium in my basement. Maybe I can tap some of Michelle’s new friends . . .
Dana, I love your point about the endless supply of aging people. As for the hardcover, I’m surprised it’s still thriving here in the US. Europe has been moving away from it for years.
John, the best thing about an nuclear-powered computer is that you never need a night light.
We may be seeing the the return of the dime novel, only in the new era it will be called the “two buck ebook.” It won’t be a bad thing, as long as everyone keeps reading.
I agree. And I’m not sure that paper will die out completely either, although I too have doubts about hardcovers. An awful lot of people buy a couple books a year–at Sam’s Club, at the grocery store, at Meijers, at Wal-Mart. They’re not necessarily hard core readers, so I have a hard time seeing the person who routinely buys one book a year for their plane trip to their Bermuda vacation, investing in an e-reader unless it’s a multi-media device like the iPad.
But I said I wasn’t comfortable reading a book on the iPhone via the Kindle app, but I gave it a full-hearted attempt and now routinely use it as a backup reading device for when I’m sitting around in the car waiting for them to show up or waiting for a high school concert to start. It’s not my favorite reading media, but it’s an option.
But as far as I can tell, an awful lot of books are still being published and bought and read.
Mark brings up an interesting point. Smartphones as e-readers may not catch on as the primary reader, but as a temp reader when waiting, etc. This only increases the market for short stories, I think. I’m actually very pumped about that aspect.
By 2013, experts estimate 40-50% of all phone users will have some kind of Smartphone. And they’ll all be waiting in line somewhere.
Jim, I’ve already gotten into the habit of bringing along my Kindle when I have to go to the post office, where there’s inevitably a long line. I often get into conversations with people who are mailing off Amazon books, who are curious about the Kindle. My main reason for preferring the Kindle to paper books now, I have to admit, is that I can scroll up the text size. The print on paper books seems to be getting smaller every year, although it’s actually my eyes that are getting older!
I agree that this is a fantastic time to be a writer. There will always be a market for stories, no matter what the medium is. I look at how much buzz books have been getting lately–The Help, Twilight, The Lost Symbol, Percy Jackson, The Hunger Games–and it’s clear to me that fiction continues to be relevant. As the number of ways readers can consume their favorite books continues to explode, writers will be in a great position. I just don’t know how publishers will make their money, but some will find a way.
I think it’s a great time to be doing what I love doing – a recent survey in Australia actually found that it was the younger (Gen Y) generation that were the most engaged in the arts – so I have to believe things will get better not worse…haven’t they been lamenting the death of the novel for long enough?!
As a huge reader, I just hope you guys keep ’em coming! And have a way to get paid fairly for writing them.
Thanks and good luck.
I’m with you, John- there are opportunities here.
You have to change or be changed. I’m up for anything. The secret is getting your books in front of eyes in some form, and whatever that is, I’m willing to accept. I remember in the seventies a friend of mine had a color lab, and I remember him telling me that film was going to be replaced by digital images captured by a computer. I thought he was crazy, but he was right. The problem them was memory, no longer the case. I haven’t shot film in years, and I no longer have a film camera. So to goes publishing. The paper page will die eventually. I also agree that $25.00 or more for a hardcover is too much based on the present economy and what people have to spend for entertainment. I am a paperback author, and that’s actually fine with me.
Also wanted to say that all the marketing on earth may sell a bad book once, but it’s building word of mouth that sustains a career.
The wonderful thing about being around during a paradigm shift is that if we play it right and persist in what we do we may very well be able to create the very reality we are searching for and shape it to our own profit.
We should tell stories in many and varied ways and see which methods percolate to the top.
maybe a new business could be renting out teenagers to teach the older generation how to operate the constant barrage of technological toys on the market…because frankly, i’m running out of grandkids who roll their eyes heavenward with my eternal questions. and that is my fear, as a reader….needing an eye-rolling grandkid to help me read a book…kathy d.
Great post, John. There’s no question, in my mind anyway, that eBooks will eventually overtake real books. And the analogy with horse & buggy vs automobile is a good one. “I’ll just keep my reliable horse, thank you.” “These newfangled things aren’t any good, you gotta put gasoline in ’em!” Ever notice how every time there’s a major technological cataclysm, these voices return to nag us. They’ve always been with us, never too far away.
I haven’t bought a Kindle or a Nook yet. I won’t be part of the iPad stampede, either. But I know I’ll buy something like that within the next year or two. I personally believe the Kindle as we know it will disappear by the end of next year, replaced by a far more efficient, multi-tasking kind of iPad-type thing.
Thank you for a great post!!!!
I do think if publishers (or whatever distributors replace them) fail to price ebooks according to what buyers think is fair (regardless of current cost structure), the same “file sharing” that devastated music industry will hit publishing as well. I’m not sure we’re there yet, but I don’t hear publishers talking sense yet either.
Once folks get into the habit of stealing, they are loathe to give it up, whether they be casino cheats or kids looking for something to read. So I hope the industry leaders make appropriate changes before bad habits develop.
Am hoping Amazon & B&N come to see themselves as partners of the content creators and publishers/distributors, not adversaries.
Great time especially because of the internet which gives opportunities unthinkable in oldentimes. My current situation would have been next to impossible 20 years ago. I am a Dutch writer living in Bangkok. In the past months I was able to get a book-deal with a US-based publisher (all done online). I write in English which is not my mother tongue, but I have an editor and beta-readers in Hollywood, New York, China and Singapore. I became a published writer 10 years ago thanks to modern technology.