by James Scott Bell
@jamesscottbell
A couple of items from the trad side of the business.
Book Sales Down
From Publishers Weekly:
Unit sales of print books had a slow start in 2026, according to data from Circana BookScan. Total unit sales fell 3.1% compared to a year ago for the quarter ending March 28, 2026, dropping to 163.5 million copies sold.
The young adult category had the steepest percentage decline.
This last bit concerns me. Is it phones, tablets, TikTok, or whatever else that keep kids from novel-length fiction? Are parents buying fewere books to give to their kids?
Book Deals Hard to Come By (File this under “New, What Else is?”)
Getting a traditional publishing deal has always been a challenge. Is it harder now? A column in USA TODAY says:
About 81% of Americans feel that they have a book in them, according to an often cited survey reported in The New York Times (from the early 2000s). Many aspire to write and publish a book in their lifetime, but only a small fraction see their work formally acquired and announced each year. A little over 2,000 fiction writers announced deals in 2025 on Publishers Marketplace.
***
[W]hen people ask, “Can anyone get a book deal?” what they’re often asking is something else:
- Is this still possible for people who aren’t famous?
- Do I have to know somebody in the industry?
- And if I do everything “right,” will it still take years?
In short: Yes, no and maybe. A book deal is attainable – to some extent. It’s also not a finish line.
***
The publishing industry is consolidating, which means fewer imprints (and fewer editors)…When editors are stretched thinner, the time it takes to nurture talent – especially debut authors – shrinks. The industry’s ability to take a slow bet on a writer, to develop them the way record labels develop musicians or sports teams develop rookies, becomes increasingly rare.
***
Even when the book is good, “we have less places to sell things than we have in the past,” Carly Watters, senior literary agent at PS Literary, told USA TODAY. “A lot of things are more predicated on the appetites of a smaller group of people … there might be separate imprints, but they all share an editorial board meeting.”
Quality aside, a novel also has to be “sellable” to stand out in those meetings. “In my experience, (books) that are easily pitchable, meaning we can sum up – hook, line, sinker – in one sentence, that’s something that I can get people’s attention with,” Watters added. There are gorgeous books that are hard to summarize, she said. The kind you want to hand someone and say, “Just read it, then call me.”
Those books can sell. But it’s harder.
The article’s author spoke with a literary agent Eric Smith:
Plenty of his clients come from cold querying (sending an email or form pitch) with no connections in the industry. But also, his inbox – when he’s open to submissions – can reach thousands in a few months. Smith estimated he received around 3,000 submissions over roughly 90 days and signed a handful last year.
That number can seem terrifying until you remember something important: Most of those submissions weren’t “bad writers.” They just weren’t the right fit. Or the timing was wrong. Or the market was saturated. Or an editor had just acquired something similar. Or an imprint closed. Or an editor got laid off. Or the editorial board said, “We already have a slot like this.”
You can do everything right and still lose to the invisible calendar of the industry.
Consolidation makes that sharper. Smith described it plainly: Agents can’t send five projects in a row to the same editor without burning that bridge.
So yes, it can be more challenging now; not because the “gatekeepers” hate writers, but because the gate is servicing fewer lanes.
Comments welcome.
A senior literary agent wrote this: “we have less places to sell things than we have in the past,” ??? What is the world coming to?
I saw that too, Harald. Ack!
That jumped out at me, too. Yikes.
The young are doing their reading online at places like Reddit which offers shorter pieces Some of the sections on Reddit are like Ann Landers where the readers are the ones giving advice.
Traditional publishing isn’t the be all and end all of the book market. Self publishing and other ways to reach readers can be viable.
“the way record labels develop musicians” — off the topic of writing I’ve been wondering what life is like for music artists nowadays because things have changed so much in that industry as well. And radio doesn’t seem to operate anything like it used to either. I can’t keep up with all the changes.
As a writer, the only thing that sort of insulates me from the constant change is that my original interest in writing was the western genre which seems to be of less interest in the modern day than it once was, so I had never intended to pursue traditional publishing because I already knew I was fighting an uphill battle. And as this post notes, trad publishing is tighter than ever. You just have to find ways to keep swimming through the publishing obstacles…
Jim, when my publisher closed their doors, I considered wading back into the submission game but opted to self-publish instead. Reading this info reassures me it was the right choice.
I love the real talk, Jim. Sobering? Yes. Discouraging? That’s optional. I choose the Jim Rockford approach. Take the case even though the script says I’m going to get beaten up and stiffed by my client each week. And solve the case, which in my case means writing the stories the right way and finding the right way to get ’em read,
Hey — it’s Jim Rockford. If I ain’t home, leave a message and I’ll get back to you. Unless you’re with the county, in which case don’t leave a message — go away.
One of my favorites. Before my time but I saw it in syndication.
Traditional publishing indeed seems tighter than ever, with fewer “lanes.” “Getting in” has always been challenging, I remember Jim Butcher twenty odd years ago describing his metaphor of publishing as a walled and locked fortress which aspiring authors had to find a way into. Once an author got in, publishers closed that way behind them. Perhaps over stated, but certainly a vivid metaphor for the challenge of getting published.
Now there are even fewer ways in.
I’d love to see follow up post on the state of play in self-publishing, which feels more challenging these days as well, to me at least.
Thanks for the food for thought to start of the week and the new month!
Jim Butcher wrote some good words about writing. My favorite is:
“YOU ARE THE ONLY ONE IN THE WORLD WHO CAN KILL YOUR DREAM. *NO ONE* can make you quit. *NO ONE* can take your dream away.
No one but you… .”
I keep those words in mind when I get discouraged.
Not the news I wanted to read on a Monday, Jim, but thanks for publishing it.
I’ve got a work‑in‑progress that’s been moving at the speed of an onrushing glacier. The idea first came to me about forty years ago, but work, family, and life in general pushed it to the back of the shelf for a long time. Now it finally exists as a complete, highly detailed outline.
Even as it inches toward the finish line, I’ve accepted that it has little to no chance of ever finding a publisher. The mechanics of getting a book out into the world, as mentioned in this thread, are just too hard to break through, even if the story happens to be as good as I think it is.
But honestly? I’ve found real joy in simply telling the story — a story that insisted I keep chipping away at it.
Makes sense why getting published could be harder these days. I’m equally concerned for our youth. I recently asked a group of 20-somethings if they read books, nonfiction or fiction. Every single one said no, they don’t have the time. We both know that’s an excuse. Most of the younger folks who grew up on social media need instant gratification. Novels, as you know, can’t give them that. Sad.
It’s such a mixed bag, I wouldn’t get discouraged. Of my four children, all are readers. Of my six grandchildren, I think five are avid readers, and two of those write. One is just out of high school.
Interestingly, my youngest daughter didn’t learn to read proficiently until she was working on her master’s degree. Reading was so slow she couldn’t get into the stories. At 60, she’s making up for lost time.